IMF’s Blog On Asia’s Economy, 2020 Growth Rate To Be Zero
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published a blog titled ‘Kovid-19 epidemic and Asia-Pacific region: lowest growth rate since 1960s’. In this blog, the economic growth rate of Asia-Pacific region due to Corona virus epidemic has been discussed.
Key points of the blog:
This epidemic will have a serious and unexpected impact in the Asia-Pacific region. However, Asia is still in a better position than other regions in terms of activities.
Asia’s growth rate in 2020 is expected to be 0 (zero). Zero growth rate will be the worst situation in about 60 years. Asia’s economic growth rate was 4.7 percent during the global financial crisis and 1.3 percent during the Asian financial crisis.
This year the global economy is expected to decline by three percent. Asia and Europe, the two largest trading partners of Asia, are forecast to fall by 6 percent and 6.6 percent respectively. The IMF has cut economic growth rates for South Korea and Australia by 3.5 percent and 9 percent respectively.
There may be a huge decline in productivity in Asia. Even now the Asia region can do better than other regions.
This year India’s growth rate is estimated to be the highest at 1.9 percent. China’s economic growth rate is also expected to fall to 1.2 percent from 6.1 percent in 2019. In 2021, China can grow at 9.2 percent and India at 7.4 percent.
‘Silage’ Idea For Reduction in Urban-Rural Gap
The lockdown imposed under stopping the spread of COVID-19 resulted in a large number of opposite streams of migration (Reverse Migration: exactly opposite to normal migration).
While many people had to leave their business during the reverse migration, on the contrary many people are able to continue work from home through Knowledge-era Technologies.
To prevent migration from rural areas to cities, a ‘Knowledge Bridge’ should be constructed between the city and the villages.
Impact of urban migration on rural areas:
Lack of Better Opportunities:
Migration to urban areas is a natural result of the better opportunities available in the city, but due to this migration there has been a lot of instability in life in rural areas.
Centralization of Resources:
There are several factors behind the centralization of resources-
The dynamics of the industrial age, which increased the concentration of resources by promoting mass production.
Due to continuous increase in higher education centers in urban areas, good jobs have increased only in urban areas.
Demographic Dividend Based Development:
Economic growth in India has been seen mainly due to demographic dividend and large size of Indian market whereas in many countries economic growth has been mainly on the basis of technology.
Overriding Rural Areas in Policy Making:
Barring a few exceptions, such as the creation of Anand dairy and sugar cooperatives in the direction of milk production, rural areas have always been neglected in economic development processes.
Reducing The Urban-Rural Gap Through Knowledge-Based Technology:
We are currently living in the knowledge era. Knowledge-based technology, unlike industrial-era technology, promotes ‘democratization’ (social media for example) and ‘decentralization’ (working from home).
People trained in techniques like ‘Internet of things’, ‘artificial intelligence’ can meet the needs of the people of these areas from any place in urban and rural areas.
Knowledge age-based techniques should be used in ‘capacity building’ of rural youth. Rural areas should have more opportunities than urban areas because rural areas can benefit from all three (agriculture, manufacturing and services) sectors of the economy.
IMD Monsoon Estimates
According to ‘India Meteorological Department- IMD’, normal monsoon is expected in the year 2020.
According to IMD, the normal monsoon is expected to be higher in 2020 (higher than normal in August and September).
IMD issues two-step monsoon forecast:
The first forecast is released in April and the second in the last week of May. A detailed monsoon forecast is released in May.
Change in definition of normal rainfall:
The ‘Long Period Average- LPA’ rainfall is used to calculate the ‘normal rainfall’ of the monsoon. The LPA is the average value of rainfall during the period 1961–2010. On the basis of LPA, the normal monsoon rainfall across the country is 88 cm.
The definition of ‘Normal Rainfall’ has been redefined. It is 89 cm. Subtracted from 88 cm. Has been done. In the monsoon season, precipitation is expected to be ‘normal rainfall’ with ± 5% deviation from normal.
Normal Monsoon Basis:
Monsoon forecasting model:
According to the ‘Dynamical Model’ of the monsoon forecast, which is based on a supercomputer, this time there is a high probability (70%) of rain during the monsoon.
According to Statistical Models, there is a 41% chance of a normal monsoon this time as compared to a 33% probability in the earlier years on this model.
In India, drought conditions are caused by ‘El-Nino’ whereas, ‘La-Nina’ causes excessive rainfall.
According to IMD, this time El-Nino will have negligible impact on the Indian monsoon.
Indian Ocean Dipole- IOD:
IOD also affects the Indian monsoon. Monsoon rainfall during positive IOD is adversely affected by monsoon rainfall during positive and negative IOD.
According to the forecast, the Indian Ocean dipole is expected to remain ‘neutral’.
Restrictions On Waiver Of Restrictions Under Lockdown
Recently, the National Disaster Management Authority- NDMA has issued an order exercising its powers obtained under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, under which the National Executive Committee ) Chairman has been directed to continue the lockdown currently implemented across the country till May 3, 2020.
The National Disaster Management Authority- NDMA has ordered the lockdown in the country to continue till May 3, 2020 on April 14, 2020.
After this order, the Union Cabinet Secretary, through video conference from the principal secretaries of all the states of the country on April 15, 2020, to continue the lockdown across the country and discuss the future framework in this context. Had a meeting.
Increase in lockdown:
On 14 April 2020, the Indian Prime Minister, through a video message, addressed the country, announced to extend the lockdown implemented across the country by 3 May to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
In this regard, orders have been issued by the Union Home Ministry to all the states and union territories of the country.
According to this order, with the increase in the lockdown period, all types of restrictions applicable in different areas of the country will remain in force till 3 May.
It has been clarified in the order that no state or union territory can relax the restrictions imposed under the Disaster Management Act, 2005 by the Union Home Ministry.
It is important to note that earlier on 24 March 2020, the Indian Prime Minister announced a complete lockdown for 21 days (14 April 2020) to stop the spread of COVID-19 in the country.
COVID-19 and Lockdown:
COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a virus called coronavirus.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the initial cases of COVID-19 were found as an unknown disease with pneumonia-like symptoms in Wuhan province of China on December 31, 2019.
According to experts, the ‘incubation period’ of this virus is of 14 days, that is, within 14 days of any person getting infected with this virus, it can show symptoms of COVID-19.
Presently, in the absence of any authentic treatment or vaccination, stopping the spread of this disease is the best way to control the disease.
World Health Organization Funding Ban
After questioning the role of the World Health Organization (WHO) in dealing with the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic, US President Donald Trump recently announced a moratorium on funding to WHO. is.
It is important to note that earlier the US President had threatened to stop the funding of WHO for some time.
The US decision comes at a time when coronavirus is affecting the whole world badly, according to statistics, globally the total cases of corona infection have crossed 2 million, in addition to more than 134000 people has died.
The United States is the largest contributor to the World Health Organization (WHO) with $ 500 million and is currently the most affected by the coronavirus epidemic. According to the latest statistics, there have been more than 600,000 cases of coronavirus infection in the US and more than 28000 people have died.
According to the United States, the World Health Organization (WHO) has failed to discharge its responsibilities and the organization has promoted China’s ‘propaganda’ about the virus, which may have led to the virus becoming more serious.
Be aware that the US has on several occasions questioned the mismanagement of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and the role of the World Health Organization (WHO) in preventing the spread of the virus. The US is of the view that the WHO has failed to collect and share information related to the virus in a timely and transparent manner.
According to experts, stopping funding at this critical time of the pandemic will not only affect the functioning of the global body but will also hurt humanity.
The US contributes 15 percent of the WHO’s total funding, and withholding funding by the US will not only affect the functioning of the WHO but will also affect the health system of the entire world.
Also, due to this, efforts going against the epidemic on the global level will also be weak.
Many low- and middle-income countries that rely on WHO for basic requirements such as test kits and masks, in addition to guidance and advice, will also have an impact on the US decision.